请选择 进入手机版 | 继续访问电脑版

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

微信登录

微信扫码,快速开始

查看: 258285|回复: 2223

资本市场投资的根本性逻辑正在改变

1359

主题

1359

帖子

10万

积分

A1级

Rank: 5Rank: 5

积分
103495
本帖最后由 设计二部 于 2021-7-30 09:30 编辑



微信图片_20210730092930.jpg

市场、资本市场未来几年的主线大体如此

这些以前都立过汗马功劳,但是发展着就逐渐变味儿了,屠龙少年变恶龙。

为了让他们在新一阶段经济发展中发挥应有的作用,要逐个从商业模式、资本市场端解决问题。

1

以前的地产公司盖房子,不光是生产房子,还可以通过金融、囤地、囤房,甚至操纵价格实现效益。

地产公司兼具金融投资公司的属性。

去掉地产行业的金融投资属性,可以缓解地产公司这个环节囤地、控制价格,地产的资产属性与价格更多和土地价格挂钩。

虽然并不能完全解决房价高的问题,至少好控制一些。留给地产行业的是来料加工并且出售,盈利就会转向制造房子、经营房子的能力,而不来自于金融和资产价格差。

地产的商业逻辑就根本性改变了。

当然,估值方法也就变了。

2

从约摸7-8年前开始,互联网企业开始频繁使用这种套路,烧钱-垄断-割韭菜,这个链条实现的结果就是全社会支付更高的后期成本。

去年反垄断说了很久,就是这个意思。

早期互联网是带来便利的,后期互联网变成了全社会似乎总效用没变,但是养活了一大堆投资机构和互联网巨头。

如果互联网各类服务是支撑双循环的重要组成部分,那未来至少要向水电气暖商业模式靠拢一下。

互联网巨头肯定是死不了,但是相关业务板块收入的天花板就给钉在那里了。

当然,收入模型也就变了。

3

医疗和教育都是经济学教科书上提到的,具有“正外部性”的行业。

他们甚至可以不盈利,但是对全社会来说,都有好处。

然而资本杀进来是要赚钱的,所以过去5年我们可以看到各类“乱象”。

  • 非医美类型的医疗,问题不大,毕竟供给端主要还是集中在传统的医疗系统内;
  • 医美类型的医疗,hmm,其实乱象很多,后面可能会陆续出台相关监管;
  • 教育,“双减”直接一脚重重的刹车。



医疗、教育这类企业是基本和资本市场说拜拜了,非医疗美容和学科教育红线就摆在那里,留给这些公司的要么是“顶风作案”要么就是找外围机会。

大赛道就变成了小赛道。

4

消费是经济发展到一定阶段,必然有发展的行业。

但是,过去10年间,消费企业有个不好的趋势,说了这么多年“消费升级”,其实都是“消费涨价”。

成本增加一块钱,售价增加5块钱。

不能说这种方向是不对的,毕竟这个市场肯定有需求,问题是大量的企业只盯住这个机会,类似提升质量不提价的路径没什么人做。

对更多人来说,并没有享受到太多因为研发、供应链、设计、生产提升带来的消费品品质提升。

大家在互联网上看到的消费相关信息,是明显的“幸存者偏差”——融到钱的企业、高毛利的企业才有钱“种草”。

未来更普惠的消费,会是发力的重点。

这反而是消费市场真正的机会,中国实现品牌软实力的表现,中国的可口可乐、优衣库总要出现。

靠30、40、50一杯的奶茶、冰棍、咖啡,靠1000块、2000块的设计师品牌可不成。

5

这是一个长期的过程,对资本市场来说也不是说让那些高速行驶的卡车瞬间180度掉头。

投资人和行业做调整需要时间来消化。

不过多读读文件,把握新的大行业发展趋势,好歹让我们能够对当下“到底投资的是什么”,有更深的理解。

有些是赚情绪的钱,有些是赚趋势的钱,有些是不能挣的钱。

360截图20210517103054989.jpg
360截图20210517103131738.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 13:05
I simply desired to thank you very much once more. I'm not certain the things that I would've done in the absence of the type of strategies documented by you about that problem. Previously it was a very intimidating circumstance in my view, nevertheless spending time with a new specialized approach you treated it took me to weep for joy. Now i'm thankful for your information and trust you comprehend what a powerful job you're providing educating others by way of your blog post. I know that you've never met any of us.
russell westbrook shoes
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 12:23

supreme outlet

游客 27.153.183.x 发表于 2022-3-31 02:46
I am writing to let you know what a exceptional experience our girl developed going through the blog ...

I not to mention my guys ended up looking at the nice guidelines on your web blog and then all of a sudden I had a terrible feeling I never expressed respect to the website owner for those secrets. My young men had been as a consequence thrilled to read through all of them and have now very much been using them. Thank you for genuinely simply kind and also for considering varieties of nice resources most people are really needing to understand about. My personal honest regret for not expressing gratitude to you earlier.
<a href="http://www.supremeoutlet.us.com" >supreme outlet</a>
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 11:37
I'm also commenting to make you know what a beneficial encounter my child gained browsing your blog. She learned several pieces, most notably what it is like to have an incredible teaching spirit to get men and women effortlessly completely grasp a variety of impossible matters. You truly surpassed our own expectations. Many thanks for giving such productive, dependable, revealing not to mention cool tips about that topic to Evelyn.
nike lebron 16
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 11:30

lebron 18

游客 27.153.183.x 发表于 2022-3-31 02:46
I precisely desired to thank you so much yet again. I do not know the things I might have carried ou ...

I simply wished to thank you so much again. I'm not certain the things that I would've taken care of in the absence of the concepts contributed by you concerning that theme. It previously was a real difficult issue in my view, but spending time with your specialised technique you processed that forced me to weep for fulfillment. I will be happy for your advice and as well , pray you know what a great job you were carrying out instructing some other people through your web blog. I am sure you haven't encountered all of us.
<a href="http://www.lebron18shoes.us" >lebron 18</a>
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 10:58
I am glad for writing to let you be aware of of the awesome encounter our girl obtained visiting your webblog. She picked up numerous details, which include what it's like to possess an awesome helping character to have other folks just know just exactly a variety of advanced matters. You truly surpassed readers' expected results. Thank you for giving such insightful, safe, revealing and also unique thoughts on your topic to Janet.
hermes birkin
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 10:25

yeezy

游客 27.153.183.x 发表于 2022-3-31 02:46
Thank you for all your effort on this website. My niece takes pleasure in going through internet res ...

Needed to create you the very small word to be able to say thank you again regarding the exceptional suggestions you have documented at this time. This has been  wonderfully generous with you in giving easily all a few individuals might have made available for an electronic book to get some bucks on their own, precisely seeing that you might have done it if you ever wanted. These creative ideas also worked to provide a good way to fully grasp some people have the identical dreams similar to my own to see whole lot more when it comes to this issue. I know there are some more pleasant sessions up front for individuals that take a look at your site.
<a href="http://www.yeezy-sneakers.us" >yeezy</a>
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 10:23
I precisely had to say thanks all over again. I'm not certain what I would've sorted out without those ideas shared by you relating to such industry. Certainly was the scary scenario in my circumstances, however , being able to see a new professional form you handled the issue took me to weep over contentment. Now i am thankful for this service and even hope that you really know what a powerful job you happen to be accomplishing educating some other people by way of your web page. I know that you've never got to know any of us.
kd 13
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 10:22
Thank you a lot for giving everyone an extremely special chance to read in detail from this web site. It is often very superb plus full of fun for me personally and my office acquaintances to visit the blog at minimum thrice in 7 days to find out the newest issues you have got. And of course, I am usually pleased for the amazing ideas served by you. Some 3 areas in this post are clearly the most suitable we have all had.
hermes handbags
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-5-23 10:16
I enjoy you because of all of the efforts on this website. Gloria take interest in managing research and it's really easy to understand why. A number of us learn all about the dynamic form you provide practical tactics on your website and as well as encourage response from the others on that area then our simple princess has always been learning a lot. Take pleasure in the rest of the new year. You are doing a glorious job.
lebron 18
回复

使用道具

高级模式
B Color Image Link Quote Code Smilies

本版积分规则

关注微信
关注QQ
023-63111196
  • 联系地址:重庆市江北区洋河一路协信中心C幢15-8
  • 联系邮箱:2015512716@qq.com
  • 工作时间:周一到周五 9:00-18:00
Copyright   ©2015-2016  元量生活  Powered by©Discuz!   
快速回复 返回列表 返回顶部