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资本市场投资的根本性逻辑正在改变

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本帖最后由 设计二部 于 2021-7-30 09:30 编辑



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市场、资本市场未来几年的主线大体如此

这些以前都立过汗马功劳,但是发展着就逐渐变味儿了,屠龙少年变恶龙。

为了让他们在新一阶段经济发展中发挥应有的作用,要逐个从商业模式、资本市场端解决问题。

1

以前的地产公司盖房子,不光是生产房子,还可以通过金融、囤地、囤房,甚至操纵价格实现效益。

地产公司兼具金融投资公司的属性。

去掉地产行业的金融投资属性,可以缓解地产公司这个环节囤地、控制价格,地产的资产属性与价格更多和土地价格挂钩。

虽然并不能完全解决房价高的问题,至少好控制一些。留给地产行业的是来料加工并且出售,盈利就会转向制造房子、经营房子的能力,而不来自于金融和资产价格差。

地产的商业逻辑就根本性改变了。

当然,估值方法也就变了。

2

从约摸7-8年前开始,互联网企业开始频繁使用这种套路,烧钱-垄断-割韭菜,这个链条实现的结果就是全社会支付更高的后期成本。

去年反垄断说了很久,就是这个意思。

早期互联网是带来便利的,后期互联网变成了全社会似乎总效用没变,但是养活了一大堆投资机构和互联网巨头。

如果互联网各类服务是支撑双循环的重要组成部分,那未来至少要向水电气暖商业模式靠拢一下。

互联网巨头肯定是死不了,但是相关业务板块收入的天花板就给钉在那里了。

当然,收入模型也就变了。

3

医疗和教育都是经济学教科书上提到的,具有“正外部性”的行业。

他们甚至可以不盈利,但是对全社会来说,都有好处。

然而资本杀进来是要赚钱的,所以过去5年我们可以看到各类“乱象”。

  • 非医美类型的医疗,问题不大,毕竟供给端主要还是集中在传统的医疗系统内;
  • 医美类型的医疗,hmm,其实乱象很多,后面可能会陆续出台相关监管;
  • 教育,“双减”直接一脚重重的刹车。



医疗、教育这类企业是基本和资本市场说拜拜了,非医疗美容和学科教育红线就摆在那里,留给这些公司的要么是“顶风作案”要么就是找外围机会。

大赛道就变成了小赛道。

4

消费是经济发展到一定阶段,必然有发展的行业。

但是,过去10年间,消费企业有个不好的趋势,说了这么多年“消费升级”,其实都是“消费涨价”。

成本增加一块钱,售价增加5块钱。

不能说这种方向是不对的,毕竟这个市场肯定有需求,问题是大量的企业只盯住这个机会,类似提升质量不提价的路径没什么人做。

对更多人来说,并没有享受到太多因为研发、供应链、设计、生产提升带来的消费品品质提升。

大家在互联网上看到的消费相关信息,是明显的“幸存者偏差”——融到钱的企业、高毛利的企业才有钱“种草”。

未来更普惠的消费,会是发力的重点。

这反而是消费市场真正的机会,中国实现品牌软实力的表现,中国的可口可乐、优衣库总要出现。

靠30、40、50一杯的奶茶、冰棍、咖啡,靠1000块、2000块的设计师品牌可不成。

5

这是一个长期的过程,对资本市场来说也不是说让那些高速行驶的卡车瞬间180度掉头。

投资人和行业做调整需要时间来消化。

不过多读读文件,把握新的大行业发展趋势,好歹让我们能够对当下“到底投资的是什么”,有更深的理解。

有些是赚情绪的钱,有些是赚趋势的钱,有些是不能挣的钱。

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