请选择 进入手机版 | 继续访问电脑版

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

微信登录

微信扫码,快速开始

查看: 542931|回复: 3991

资本市场投资的根本性逻辑正在改变

1359

主题

1359

帖子

10万

积分

A1级

Rank: 5Rank: 5

积分
103495
本帖最后由 设计二部 于 2021-7-30 09:30 编辑



微信图片_20210730092930.jpg

市场、资本市场未来几年的主线大体如此

这些以前都立过汗马功劳,但是发展着就逐渐变味儿了,屠龙少年变恶龙。

为了让他们在新一阶段经济发展中发挥应有的作用,要逐个从商业模式、资本市场端解决问题。

1

以前的地产公司盖房子,不光是生产房子,还可以通过金融、囤地、囤房,甚至操纵价格实现效益。

地产公司兼具金融投资公司的属性。

去掉地产行业的金融投资属性,可以缓解地产公司这个环节囤地、控制价格,地产的资产属性与价格更多和土地价格挂钩。

虽然并不能完全解决房价高的问题,至少好控制一些。留给地产行业的是来料加工并且出售,盈利就会转向制造房子、经营房子的能力,而不来自于金融和资产价格差。

地产的商业逻辑就根本性改变了。

当然,估值方法也就变了。

2

从约摸7-8年前开始,互联网企业开始频繁使用这种套路,烧钱-垄断-割韭菜,这个链条实现的结果就是全社会支付更高的后期成本。

去年反垄断说了很久,就是这个意思。

早期互联网是带来便利的,后期互联网变成了全社会似乎总效用没变,但是养活了一大堆投资机构和互联网巨头。

如果互联网各类服务是支撑双循环的重要组成部分,那未来至少要向水电气暖商业模式靠拢一下。

互联网巨头肯定是死不了,但是相关业务板块收入的天花板就给钉在那里了。

当然,收入模型也就变了。

3

医疗和教育都是经济学教科书上提到的,具有“正外部性”的行业。

他们甚至可以不盈利,但是对全社会来说,都有好处。

然而资本杀进来是要赚钱的,所以过去5年我们可以看到各类“乱象”。

  • 非医美类型的医疗,问题不大,毕竟供给端主要还是集中在传统的医疗系统内;
  • 医美类型的医疗,hmm,其实乱象很多,后面可能会陆续出台相关监管;
  • 教育,“双减”直接一脚重重的刹车。



医疗、教育这类企业是基本和资本市场说拜拜了,非医疗美容和学科教育红线就摆在那里,留给这些公司的要么是“顶风作案”要么就是找外围机会。

大赛道就变成了小赛道。

4

消费是经济发展到一定阶段,必然有发展的行业。

但是,过去10年间,消费企业有个不好的趋势,说了这么多年“消费升级”,其实都是“消费涨价”。

成本增加一块钱,售价增加5块钱。

不能说这种方向是不对的,毕竟这个市场肯定有需求,问题是大量的企业只盯住这个机会,类似提升质量不提价的路径没什么人做。

对更多人来说,并没有享受到太多因为研发、供应链、设计、生产提升带来的消费品品质提升。

大家在互联网上看到的消费相关信息,是明显的“幸存者偏差”——融到钱的企业、高毛利的企业才有钱“种草”。

未来更普惠的消费,会是发力的重点。

这反而是消费市场真正的机会,中国实现品牌软实力的表现,中国的可口可乐、优衣库总要出现。

靠30、40、50一杯的奶茶、冰棍、咖啡,靠1000块、2000块的设计师品牌可不成。

5

这是一个长期的过程,对资本市场来说也不是说让那些高速行驶的卡车瞬间180度掉头。

投资人和行业做调整需要时间来消化。

不过多读读文件,把握新的大行业发展趋势,好歹让我们能够对当下“到底投资的是什么”,有更深的理解。

有些是赚情绪的钱,有些是赚趋势的钱,有些是不能挣的钱。

360截图20210517103054989.jpg
360截图20210517103131738.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

匿名  发表于 2022-7-22 21:39
I am just writing to make you be aware of what a fantastic experience my wife's girl obtained studying your web site. She realized many pieces, including what it's like to have an excellent helping style to make many more quite simply gain knowledge of certain very confusing topics. You truly did more than visitors' expected results. Thank you for presenting the good, dependable, edifying as well as easy tips on the topic to Kate.
jordan 1 low
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-22 20:32
My husband and i have been really glad when Chris could do his investigation from the ideas he gained from your own weblog. It's not at all simplistic just to continually be giving for free techniques that many many others may have been making money from. And we do know we need the blog owner to thank for this. The entire explanations you have made, the straightforward website menu, the friendships you help to instill - it's got mostly extraordinary, and it is making our son in addition to us consider that that situation is enjoyable, which is truly indispensable. Thank you for everything!
cheap kyrie 5
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-22 20:23
I needed to write you a very small observation so as to give thanks once again on your exceptional views you have featured above. It is quite remarkably generous of you to make openly just what most people would've distributed for an ebook to generate some profit for their own end, particularly considering the fact that you might have tried it if you ever decided. The techniques also worked to become great way to understand that other people online have a similar fervor just as my very own to learn a great deal more with reference to this matter. I'm sure there are millions of more fun instances up front for individuals who take a look at your site.
golden goose sale
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-22 17:31
I am only writing to let you be aware of of the amazing encounter my cousin's princess found reading your web page. She learned numerous details, with the inclusion of what it is like to possess a marvelous giving heart to have men and women just learn certain complicated subject areas. You actually surpassed our expectations. Many thanks for presenting these important, healthy, revealing and in addition fun tips about your topic to Tanya.
cheap kobes http://www.kobebasketballshoes.net
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-22 16:08
I'm also commenting to make you understand what a impressive discovery my friend's daughter had checking the blog. She came to find plenty of issues, not to mention what it's like to have a great teaching mood to have many more completely completely grasp a variety of problematic subject areas. You actually surpassed my desires. I appreciate you for providing such warm and helpful, trustworthy, explanatory and fun thoughts on that topic to Jane.
hermes belts
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-22 04:51
I  wanted to develop a simple message in order to say thanks to you for the magnificent advice you are writing at this site. My considerable internet look up has at the end of the day been recognized with pleasant facts and strategies to exchange with my friends and family. I 'd declare that we site visitors actually are undoubtedly lucky to be in a great network with  many marvellous professionals with good advice. I feel truly privileged to have encountered the web pages and look forward to many more entertaining moments reading here. Thanks again for all the details.
jordan 11 http://www.jordan11retro.us.com
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-22 01:08
<a href="https://www.nuttours.com/air-jordan-3-blue-red-shoes-shoer">air jordan 3 blue red shoes</a> <a href="https://www.rcnutricion.com/buy-homecoming-dress-online-satyr">buy homecoming dress online</a> <a href="http://www.spurtwelt.com/new-york-yankees-2000-world-series-hat-today-capf">new york yankees 2000 world series hat today</a> <a href="https://www.technotizie.net/spiderman-tutu-satydk">spiderman tutu</a> <a href="http://www.cvrvoutlet.com/navy-silk-shirt-dress-poloc">navy silk shirt dress</a> <a href="https://www.hyo-kin.com/dan-marino-throwback-jersey-nhlen">dan marino throwback jersey</a>
lebsocial http://www.lebsocial.com/
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-21 22:11
I would like to show my thanks to this writer just for bailing me out of such a condition. Right after exploring through the world-wide-web and coming across strategies that were not powerful, I assumed my life was well over. Living minus the strategies to the difficulties you've solved all through the short article is a serious case, and those that would have in a negative way damaged my entire career if I hadn't noticed your website. Your main understanding and kindness in controlling all the things was very helpful. I'm not sure what I would've done if I hadn't encountered such a solution like this. I am able to at this point relish my future. Thanks a lot so much for your expert and result oriented help. I will not think twice to propose your web site to any person who wants and needs guidance about this issue.
cheap kyrie basketball shoes http://www.kyrieirving-shoes.us.com
回复

使用道具

匿名  发表于 2022-7-21 20:24
I wish to express my thanks to you just for rescuing me from this incident. Because of researching through the the web and meeting tips which were not pleasant, I believed my life was done. Living without the presence of answers to the difficulties you have resolved by means of the post is a serious case, as well as ones that might have in a negative way damaged my entire career if I hadn't encountered your site. Your main know-how and kindness in dealing with all the stuff was priceless. I am not sure what I would have done if I had not come upon such a step like this. I can at this moment relish my future. Thank you so much for this skilled and amazing help. I won't hesitate to suggest the sites to any person who requires guidance on this problem.
cheap curry 8 http://www.curry-8.us
回复

使用道具

高级模式
B Color Image Link Quote Code Smilies

本版积分规则

关注微信
关注QQ
023-63111196
  • 联系地址:重庆市江北区洋河一路协信中心C幢15-8
  • 联系邮箱:2015512716@qq.com
  • 工作时间:周一到周五 9:00-18:00
Copyright   ©2015-2016  元量生活  Powered by©Discuz!   
快速回复 返回列表 返回顶部