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A股惊现12%股息率+2倍市盈率股!投资时点已来?

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本帖最后由 设计二部 于 2021-7-29 09:39 编辑



地产龙头投资机会已现?

A股市场近期进入大幅震荡期,部分板块估值更是一路下滑。截至最新,银行、建筑装饰、房地产等三大板块,已经跌破净资产。其中,银行板块市净率0.62倍倒数第一,建筑装饰、房地产两个板块市净率均不足0.9倍。值得注意的是,建筑及房地产板块部分龙头股估值也是频频创出历史新低,其中中国建筑、保利地产等龙头公司,账上现金已经超过其总市值。

整体来看,截至7月28日,有多达66只个股账上现金超过其总市值,多集中在房地产建筑板块。有人认为,现金超过总市值,是公司价值低估的表现。事实果真如此吗?

66股账上现金超总市值

数据宝统计显示,上述66只个股主要集中在房地产板块,合计有31只个股进入榜单。其次是非银金融行业,有16只个股。建筑装饰板块有11只个股。此外,家电、交运、采掘等板块均有2股以上。

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从现金市值比来看,最高的是中交地产,接近5倍。该股在手货币资金193亿元,最新总市值39亿元出头。此外,蓝光发展、华发股份、建发股份等12只个股在手货币资金是总市值的两倍以上。

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价值低估?

理论上讲,当一家公司现金超过总市值时,投资者可以在二级市场把股票全部买下,然后处理所有资产后即可套利。也就是说,现金超过总市值,是价值低估的一种表现,和市净率有一定类似之处。

不过,需要说明的是,在现实中,上述操作几乎不可能实现。因为要在二级市场买下相关个股所有股票,股价必然大幅上涨,从而抬升总市值。与此同时,还需要综合考虑个股资产负债率、市净率的情况。比如有些公司手握千亿现金的同时,还负债上千亿。

综上所述,现金超过总市值不意味着极度低估,还要多方面综合考虑。比如一些公司盈利能力堪忧,导致现金流可能快速消耗,典型如一些地产公司,一旦房子卖不好现金流没跟上,就可能造成上述情况。同时,地产公司作为资金消耗大户,近年来受到政策压制厉害,估值难以提升。

机构称优秀公司投资时点已来

不过,从榜单中个股市净率市盈率角度来看,低估是可见的。数据显示,榜单中有46只个股跌破净资产,信达地产、荣盛发展、蓝光发展等10股市净率低于0.5倍;蓝光发展、中南建设、荣盛发展等个股市盈率低于3倍;中南建设、金科股份、冀中能源等个股股息率均超过5%。

综合来看,榜单中有25只个股股息率超3%且市盈率低于10倍。其中,中南建设的股息率为12.22%、市盈率为2.44倍,金科股份的股息率为10.51%、市盈率为3.22倍。

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中信证券认为,市场对于地产企业的担心,主要是盈利能力下降和资产负债表质量的担心。但部分企业经营十分稳健,资金成本上行压力极小,综合成本线也具备优势。房地产开发行业会长期存在,但产品结构甚至是产业参与者都会发生变化。在经过漫长的股价调整之后,中信证券认为目前是优秀地产公司很好的投资时点,看好信用记录和业务结构适应新时代的龙头企业,推荐万科A(万科企业),龙湖集团,保利地产,金地集团,碧桂园,华润置地,旭辉控股集团和招商蛇口。

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